China’s renewable energy surge: Strengthening energy security and global leadership

The country is set to reach a total wind and solar capacity of 1,200 gigawatts by the end of 2024.

China’s renewable energy sector is set to surpass its original wind and solar capacity targets much earlier than anticipated. According to Sophie Lu, a researcher with Global Energy Monitor’s Renewables & Other Power Programme, this accelerated growth is driven by the dual objectives of enhancing national energy security and asserting a dominant position in the global green industry.

The country’s renewable energy progress has seen rapid growth in solar and wind installations. Lu said that the country is expected to achieve a combined wind and solar capacity of 1,200 gigawatts (GW) by the end of December. This achievement, she noted, comes “way ahead of their original goal” and underscores the government’s commitment to bolstering its renewable energy infrastructure.

However, China’s growing energy use, fueled by rapid economic growth, has surpassed its domestic energy production, leading to increased reliance on imported energy resources such as oil and natural gas, Lu pointed out.

This dependence on foreign energy imports poses risks, particularly in the context of global trade friction and geopolitical uncertainties. “China is aware of that, and they understand, if they want to improve their energy independence, they need to harness the best indigenous renewable energy such as solar and wind,” she said.

A look ahead: 2030 and beyond

China’s renewable energy capacity has seen unprecedented growth, with nearly 300 GW added in 2023 alone—more than double any previous year’s capacity. As of the first half of 2024, wind and solar installations have increased by 24% compared to the previous year. Lu projects that if Beijing maintains this pace, the country could potentially triple its renewable energy capacity from its 2020 baseline, reaching approximately 3,500 GW by 2030.

“We believe if China installed the same amount of solar and wind every year through 2030 as what it did in 2023, then it will be just shy of tripling renewable energy over a 2020 baseline,” she stated, underscoring the country’s ambition to lead in the global renewable energy race.

Challenges in grid capacity and coal dependency

“The speed of upgrading and developing the grid system and networks in the central and eastern regions of China is not keeping up with the growth of clean energy installation,” Lu noted. In 2024 alone, more than 36 counties and cities across 14 provinces have suspended issuing permits for distributed solar farms or have halted their installation altogether. Additionally, the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission lines, intended to transfer electricity from wind and solar farms in the northern regions to more populated eastern provinces, is lagging behind schedule.

Lu warned that if these grid challenges are not addressed promptly, they could become a bottleneck for China’s renewable energy growth in the near future. “All this tells that China’s grid and transmission line is not well prepared for this enormous wind and solar growth,” she said.

Another significant challenge stems from China’s historical reliance on coal. The country’s energy system has traditionally been centered around coal, which has been used as a “supporting energy resource to balance the intermittency of wind and solar,” Lu said. 

Whilst the government has implemented policies to support coal power plants, these measures have inadvertently exacerbated issues such as overcapacity, revenue losses, and potential asset stranding within the coal industry.

In response to these challenges, the Chinese government has ramped up investments in grid infrastructure, particularly in the development of ultra-high voltage transmission lines and the upgrading of existing grid and distribution systems. Additionally, the government is placing significant emphasis on energy storage technologies, with a focus on innovation and the integration of storage solutions into the grid.

“They continue investment in pushing the build out of ultra-high voltage transmission lines and upgrade their grid system and distribution system,” Lu said. Moreover, the government has announced various reforms and regulatory measures aimed at addressing market challenges and ensuring the long-term sustainability of China’s clean energy transition, she added.